Shocking: The San Diego Padres are still not mathematically eliminated from Season 4's playoffs

04/01/2019

Yes, you heard correctly. Despite the abysmal performance this year from the southern California franchise, due to a win in session 12, the Padres have not yet been eliminated from next year's playoff race. 

Here's all it takes to make it happen; with San Diego starting the season 0-0, we assume they lose 9 of the 16 games in the regular season and end up 7-9 (I know, this is a best case scenario, but it's still doable). If they split against their divisional opponents, we have to depend on Colorado, San Francisco, and Los Angeles to go 6-8 or worse in their remaining games. Since 4 of these games are against each other, we'll assume they all split an even .500 and need to go 4-6 against the rest of the league. This may seem like a tall task, but with the schedules not yet released, who knows if the Rockies and Giants could end up facing the Royals, Angels, or Athletics in interleague play. Assuming the Rockies and Giants both skid to the finish line in this exact manner, the only thing that needs to happen is the Padres need to win the run differential tiebreaker. They've clearly shown their ability in season 3 to consistently lose incredibly close ballgames, so if they continue to stay in close games that they're destined to lose next year, this could tremendously help their playoff chances. Assuming they end up with the same 7-9 record as the Giants or the Rockies (or possibly both), the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't apply, and the Padres ability to lose ballgames by only a mere run or 5 will help their run differential tiebreaker fight.

In terms of making the wild card, the Padres are practically eliminated from winning the wild card however, as they'd have to be better than at least 2 national league teams located East of Colorado, and that hasn't happened since their inception in season 2. This is quite likely will continue to not happen as well.


Will the Padres make the playoffs next season? It's a steep climb, and it takes some real restructuring of projected games and some underdogs winning. But with the right teams losing and the Padres staying as hot as they are, you just may see the Padres still in the playoff race in session 15 next season.

Five Oh One Difference - An MLR and RYL Sports Blog
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